We've all heard that folksy wisdom about the frog and the boiling water, or about glaciers moving slowly. Each piece of wisdom has essentially the same take-away: that we can overlook incremental shifts if they occur slowly, until enough increments have accumulated, and we're in an entirely different situation.
It's been almost a full year into the Trump presidency, and if you look at the long-term view, there's been a noticeable shift toward authoritarianism. It's not a major shift, but it is a noteworthy one, because any movement toward authoritarianism is noteworthy. So what has this administration done so far that has nudged us toward authoritarianism? Here's a list of the most significant things it's done:
- Floating the idea of privatizing intelligence collection
- Publicly disparaging the judicial system, the FBI, and the media - all key democratic institutions, in their own way
- Moving to centralize decision-making among his inner circle (AKA family members)
- Establishing an commission to investigate the overhyped voter fraud problem, likely intended to disenfranchise millions of voters
- Expressing admiration for brutal despots and heavy-handed law enforcement officers and harsh tactics
- Hinting that thousands of Americans are under surveillance (while his administration's lawyers have argued they can continue a controversial surveillance program even if Congressional authorization expires)
There are two ways to look at this. On one hand, a lot of this is just posturing - a mix of blustery rants, fueled by Trump's anger and frustration in reaction to policy defeats, and him being a masterful showman and playing to the crowd. Trump hasn't taken many concrete actions to translate his words into policies. On the other hand, it's probably not a coincidence that authoritarianism is a recurring theme in Trump's words and opinions. Any tendency that surfaces so many times is a sign of a belief a person holds. When Trump remarked that he'd only acknowledge the election results if he won, maybe he was joking - but there was a grain of honesty in it. On some level, Trump was giving us a glimpse behind the curtain.
There are also many parallels between Trump's words (and deeds) and things both past and present authoritarian regimes have done. Sarah Kendzior (among other journalists) has made a career researching authoritarian regimes, and she has been sounding the alarm about the Trump administration for months. She has written some truly amazing articles. When I first discovered her writing, I thought she was being too alarmist; but she has been well ahead of the curve in predicting Trump's next moves. And even if it's just talk, the president's words send a message of what's acceptable to all the subordinate Executive Branch agencies. It's not a coincidence that ICE methods have gotten harsher since Trump took office. Things like these are more like small steps than giant leap, but even small steps deserve pushback.
In my lifetime, I've never doubted that a president would step down once his term was over - until now. This is why Trump's statements can't be written off as harmless jokes. When he made the remark about honoring the election results, it was like saying "bomb" in an airport. It may be said in jest, but it's not something to joke about. And Trump has said a lot of things that could be interpreted as signs he might not step down. Additionally, Trump enjoys a lot of legal advantages and protections he didn't get as a private citizen - which will become more important to him and his inner circle as the Mueller investigation closes in.
And even if Trump does leave voluntarily, what about where we are as a country?
Because the truth is, Trump's campaign rhetoric had a grain of truth to it: DC is a swamp that needs draining. The politicians and wealthy donors take care of each other, while they put on a show of holding those who step out of line accountable. Remember General Petraeus? He would be in jail for the rest of his life if he'd been a junior enlisted without the right political connections. How about GWB and the Iraq War architects? That got swept under the rug, and nobody was held accountable. Same thing with the Wall Street banking CEOs who crashed the economy in 2008 - nobody went to jail for that. People see all of that, and it feeds a narrative that the government is neglecting average Joes and Janes - and perception creates reality. Right now, that perception/reality is feeding a lot of frustration with the status quo.
Feel great yet, America? You should; because as bad as things have gotten, there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon. People are getting more politically active. A record number of women have filed to run for office, Paul Ryan is facing a credible challenger to his House seat, the Virginia election was a kind-of referendum on Trump's performance, and the Women's March drew one of the biggest crowds in US history. For the most part, our institutions are holding, too. Trump is stocking federal judge positions with ideologically similar candidates, and that goes in the "loss" column; but the victories outweigh that.
The battle to undo Trump's damage and set things right will not be easy, but the end result will be worth it.
Feel great, America.
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