Cold War 2.0?

So a lot of Americans are pissed off at the Russian government right now.  It's now clear that Putin and his cronies played a non-insignificant part in shaping the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election.  Which means that Russia is at least partly responsible for saddling us with an indisputably terrible president.  What's worse, they took away Americans' trust in the electoral process.  Not only is the 2016 election tainted with perceptions of illegitimacy, but there will be a cloud of suspicion hanging over future elections - especially since the government doesn't appear to be doing enough to safeguard the integrity of the voting process.  On top of all that, Russia did more than interfere in the electoral process.  It also stirred up a lot of ill will and worsened the country's polarization.  Look around, listen to what people are saying and read the comments they're leaving on social media: Americans are deeply divided, usually over Trump's policies and conduct.  The fact is, Russia hit us pretty hard, and Americans are right to be furious.

However, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, the US Government has done its own share of meddling in other countries' elections.  I don't say that to defend what the Russian government did, but instead to point out the hypocrisy involved.  Our government doesn't have the moral high ground here, not even by claiming it was done for "very good reasons." It's also hard to promote democracy in other countries while helping to undermine it in those same places.  Now that we're getting a taste of our own medicine, we're realizing how much it sucks. 

Second, whether unintentionally or deliberately, our government has antagonized Russia several times since the end of the Cold War.  Military alliances and campaigns such as the bombing campaign against Serbia (a staunch Russian ally) and the ongoing military presence in the Balkans, the NATO expansion, and attacks against Russia's former allies, including Iraq, have all been perceived as insults at best and provocations at worse.  To get some perspective, imagine how we would feel if the Russian military had done the following: formed a military alliance with Canada, Mexico, and several Latin American nations; bombed and occupied Great Britain; and attacked Israel twice in thirteen years.  I think we'd feel more than a little threatened.

Third, and probably most important, Russia didn't create this mess out of thin air.  It recognized that America was already pretty divided on many issues, and it poured gasoline on a low-grade fire.  There were still healthy feelings of Islamophobia, homophobia, and racial tensions; media outlets willing to publish divisive "news" for ratings and revenue; a decades-long feeling of economic anxiety due to stagnant salaries or poverty wages, growing economic inequality, outsourcing, rising expenses, and ballooning government deficits; civil liberties being chipped away; and the perception of an indifferent political class.  2016 was the "anti-establishment" election; and Hillary Clinton was perceived by some parts of the country as being a significant part of the problem.  Russia simply observed the American political and cultural landscape, and saw its opening.

Russia isn't the only one who sees an opening, though.  The Russian electoral meddling has given a lot of anti-Russian hawks the pretext they've been waiting for to resume the Cold War, people like John "I never met a war I didn't like" Bolton.  You remember him, right? He was George W. Bush's Ambassador to the UN, he was super-hawkish, and he helped sell the flimsy Iraqi WMD intelligence.  Why anyone still listens to him at all is a mystery, yet The Hill recently allowed him to write an op-ed, in which he wrote, "The White House can and should now pivot to the real task ahead, which is dealing strategically and comprehensively with Russia's global efforts to enhance its influence." There are other semi-influential people like Bolton in the Beltway, and they're drooling over the possibility of a confrontation with Russia.  Judging by her policy ideas, Hillary Clinton was one of them - which was one reason I didn't vote for her. Readopting a belligerent posture toward Russia also gives the anti-Russian crowd to downplay or distract people from domestic problems, and considering how many problems this country has, a useful distraction would probably be welcomed by some people.

America has already been through one Cold War, and it wasn't very fun for most people: the threat of nuclear annihilation, anti-Communist witch hunts and infringements on civil liberties, an multi-decade arms race, money diverted away from schools/hospitals/infrastructure/etc, and so on.  Plus, America has a lot of problems at home to solve, and the last thing we need is to focus our attention and resources on an adversary thousands of miles away.  So, let's not do that again, okay?

Frogs and Boiling Water: Trump's Incremental Swing toward Authoritarianism

Feel great yet, America?

We've all heard that folksy wisdom about the frog and the boiling water, or about glaciers moving slowly.  Each piece of wisdom has essentially the same take-away: that we can overlook incremental shifts if they occur slowly, until enough increments have accumulated, and we're in an entirely different situation.

It's been almost a full year into the Trump presidency, and if you look at the long-term view, there's been a noticeable shift toward authoritarianism.  It's not a major shift, but it is a noteworthy one, because any movement toward authoritarianism is noteworthy.  So what has this administration done so far that has nudged us toward authoritarianism? Here's a list of the most significant things it's done:

• Floating the idea of privatizing intelligence collection
• Publicly disparaging the judicial system, the FBI, and the media - all key democratic institutions, in their own way
• Moving to centralize decision-making among his inner circle (AKA family members)
• Establishing an commission to investigate the overhyped voter fraud problem, likely intended to disenfranchise millions of voters
• Expressing admiration for brutal despots and heavy-handed law enforcement officers and harsh tactics
• Hinting that thousands of Americans are under surveillance (while his administration's lawyers have argued they can continue a controversial surveillance program even if Congressional authorization expires)

Feel great yet, America?

There are two ways to look at this.  On one hand, a lot of this is just posturing - a mix of blustery rants, fueled by Trump's anger and frustration in reaction to policy defeats, and him being a masterful showman and playing to the crowd.  Trump hasn't taken many concrete actions to translate his words into policies.  On the other hand, it's probably not a coincidence that authoritarianism is a recurring theme in Trump's words and opinions.  Any tendency that surfaces so many times is a sign of a belief a person holds.  When Trump remarked that he'd only acknowledge the election results if he won, maybe he was joking - but there was a grain of honesty in it.  On some level, Trump was giving us a glimpse behind the curtain. 

There are also many parallels between Trump's words (and deeds) and things both past and present authoritarian regimes have done.  Sarah Kendzior (among other journalists) has made a career researching authoritarian regimes, and she has been sounding the alarm about the Trump administration for months.  She has written some truly amazing articles.  When I first discovered her writing, I thought she was being too alarmist; but she has been well ahead of the curve in predicting Trump's next moves. And even if it's just talk, the president's words send a message of what's acceptable to all the subordinate Executive Branch agencies.  It's not a coincidence that ICE methods have gotten harsher since Trump took office.  Things like these are more like small steps than giant leap, but even small steps deserve pushback.

In my lifetime, I've never doubted that a president would step down once his term was over - until now.  This is why Trump's statements can't be written off as harmless jokes.  When he made the remark about honoring the election results, it was like saying "bomb" in an airport.  It may be said in jest, but it's not something to joke about.  And Trump has said a lot of things that could be interpreted as signs he might not step down.  Additionally, Trump enjoys a lot of legal advantages and protections he didn't get as a private citizen - which will become more important to him and his inner circle as the Mueller investigation closes in.

And even if Trump does leave voluntarily, what about where we are as a country?

Because the truth is, Trump's campaign rhetoric had a grain of truth to it: DC is a swamp that needs draining.  The politicians and wealthy donors take care of each other, while they put on a show of holding those who step out of line accountable.  Remember General Petraeus? He would be in jail for the rest of his life if he'd been a junior enlisted without the right political connections.  How about GWB and the Iraq War architects? That got swept under the rug, and nobody was held accountable.  Same thing with the Wall Street banking CEOs who crashed the economy in 2008 - nobody went to jail for that.  People see all of that, and it feeds a narrative that the government is neglecting average Joes and Janes - and perception creates reality.  Right now, that perception/reality is feeding a lot of frustration with the status quo.

Feel great yet, America? You should; because as bad as things have gotten, there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon.  People are getting more politically active.  A record number of women have filed to run for office, Paul Ryan is facing a credible challenger to his House seat, the Virginia election was a kind-of referendum on Trump's performance, and the Women's March drew one of the biggest crowds in US history.  For the most part, our institutions are holding, too.  Trump is stocking federal judge positions with ideologically similar candidates, and that goes in the "loss" column; but the victories outweigh that. 

The battle to undo Trump's damage and set things right will not be easy, but the end result will be worth it. 

Feel great, America.